Decline in Graduate Exam Candidates by 500,000: Are They All Turning to Civil Service Exams?
Recently, the number of candidates for the 2025 national master’s degree entrance exams has been announced, totaling 3.88 million, which represents a decrease of 500,000 compared to the previous year. According to data released by the Ministry of Education over the years, the number of applicants for master’s programs peaked at 4.74 million in 2023, followed by a consecutive decline over the next two years, with this year’s drop being more pronounced.
Despite the declining number of candidates for the national master’s exams, the number of undergraduate graduates in China continues to rise. In September 2024, the State Council Degree Committee approved a new batch of institutions authorized to confer master’s degrees, indicating that the enrollment scale for 2025 will increase. However, the actual number of applicants for master’s programs is on the decline. In contrast, civil service exams are experiencing an upsurge, with the number of candidates for the 2025 national civil service exam hitting a new high. Analysts suggest that multiple factors contribute to these phenomena:
1. Increase in Recommended Candidates for Master’s Programs
One reason for the decline may be the increase in the number of undergraduate students recommended for master’s programs at high-quality universities. With more students being recommended, the competition for admission may become stiffer, potentially making the most attractive spots less accessible. Yet, this perspective requires deeper analysis for a clear conclusion. Many universities are indeed expanding their recommendation scales; for instance, in 2021, the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission and other departments emphasized improving the recommendation rates for undergraduates. However, the Ministry of Education also stipulated that the number of recommended candidates cannot exceed 50% of the institution’s master’s enrollment plan.
Additionally, there has been a significant push for professional master’s programs in recent years, which may lead to a tilt towards academic master’s candidates. Professional master’s programs typically have higher tuition fees and lower market recognition, which could affect candidates’ willingness to apply. The interplay of these factors requires further validation to understand their impact on the decline in applicants for the master’s exams.
2. Changes in Exam Formats
Starting in 2025, many universities will adopt “nationally unified examination papers” for their master’s programs, which could make exams more challenging for candidates. However, it’s also possible that standardization may lower the difficulty level at some institutions, thereby attracting more candidates. For example, some schools have reported increased interest after announcing the use of standardized exams, with students feeling more confident without certain complex mathematics in the new format. Therefore, the net effect of this change on the number of applicants is not straightforward.
3. Growing Preference for International Master’s Programs
The perception that domestic graduate programs are increasingly difficult while some international master’s programs are perceived as “easier” has also influenced candidates’ choices. Many families now have the financial capability to support their children studying abroad. If this trend continues, domestic programs must maintain high standards and rigorous entrance exams to avoid lowering their quality due to declining enrollment numbers.
4. Diminishing Value of Master’s Degrees
Another crucial factor is the declining perceived value of a master’s degree. Since 2013, while advocating for the expansion of graduate education, I have observed that the personal return on investment for graduate education has been continually increasing. However, recent analyses show that in 2022, for the first time, the personal return on investment for graduate education in China declined, indicating that the income-enhancing effect of a master’s degree is diminishing.
This decline can explain the drop in applicants for the national master’s exam last year. As potential candidates recognize that the economic benefits of obtaining a master’s degree may not outweigh the time and resources required, many are opting for civil service exams instead. This shift further elucidates the increasing popularity of civil service exams alongside the falling interest in graduate studies.
Conclusion
The decrease in the perceived value of a master’s degree, reflected in the declining return on investment from graduate education, appears to be the primary cause of the consecutive declines in the number of candidates for national master’s exams. If a master’s degree can significantly enhance a learner’s earning potential, we can expect a revival in interest in graduate studies in the future.
This analysis suggests that as the labor market evolves, so too must educational offerings, ensuring they align with candidate expectations and demands. The changing landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for higher education institutions in China.
