Population Size as a Key Indicator of Urban Development. Since 1990, Guangzhou’s permanent population has increased from 5.919 million to 18.827 million in 2023, while Dongguan’s permanent population has risen from 1.756 million in 1990 to 10.485 million in 2023. What Have Guangzhou and Dongguan Done Right in Attracting Population? What Can Population Outflow Cities Learn from Their Experiences?
A report from the Quzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission website in Zhejiang Province stated that from July 30 to August 1 this year, Zhu Zheng, Vice Chairman of the Quzhou Municipal Political Consultative Conference, led relevant leaders from the Municipal Development and Reform Commission, Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, and Natural Resources and Planning Bureau to visit Guangzhou and Dongguan to study and inspect their population aggregation work. Recently, the relevant research report has been published on the Municipal Development and Reform Commission’s website.
What Have Guangzhou and Dongguan Done Right in the “War for Talent”?
The report mentioned that from 1990 to 2023, Guangzhou’s permanent population had an annual growth rate of 3.57%, with an annual growth rate of 5.32% from 1990 to 2000. Dongguan’s permanent population had an annual growth rate of 5.56% from 1990 to 2023, with an astonishing annual growth rate of 13.89% (increasing by 3.7 times) from 1990 to 2000. The growth rate of both cities has decreased to around 0.4% in the past three years, with a slight decrease in population in 2022 followed by a return to positive growth in 2023. In comparison, Quzhou’s permanent population increased slightly and波动式ly from 2.26 million in 1990 to 2.297 million in 2023, with an annual growth rate of only 0.05%. The peak growth period was from 2010 to 2020, with an annual growth rate of 0.71%.
In terms of registered population, Guangzhou’s registered population increased from 5.943 million in 1990 to 10.566 million in 2023, while Dongguan’s registered population rose from 1.319 million in 1990 to 3.079 million in 2023. The annual growth rates of the two cities were 1.76% and 2.60%, respectively, which were about half of the annual growth rate of the permanent population, and with the relaxation of household registration policies, there has been a trend of increasing growth rates in recent years. In contrast, Quzhou’s registered population increased from 2.307 million in 1990 to 2.539 million in 2023, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with an annual growth rate of about 0.29%.
Furthermore, Guangzhou’s urbanization rate was already high at 83.8% in 2000 and later increased slightly to 86.8% in 2023, with an annual increase of only 0.13 percentage points. Dongguan’s urbanization rate rapidly increased from 60% in 2000 to 88.5% in 2010 and then slowly increased to 92.8% in 2023, with an annual increase of 1.43 percentage points.
According to the report’s analysis, population mobility has led to significant differences in aging rates and fertility rates. In 1990, the aging rates (above 65 years old) of Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Quzhou were similar, all around 6%. However, by 2020, they were 7.8%, 3.5%, and 18.5%, respectively. On the one hand, Guangzhou and Dongguan have a large number of young migrant populations that lower the overall age of the society. On the other hand, Quzhou has a relatively high outflow of young people. The combination of these two factors has resulted in significant differences in aging rates. Since 1990, although the birth rates of Guangzhou and Dongguan’s registered populations have shown a downward trend, they have basically remained above 1%, while Quzhou’s birth rate has declined significantly, reaching only 0.53% in 2023, which is also caused by structural differences due to population mobility.
The Paper noted that in 2023, Quzhou’s birth rate was 5.3‰, the mortality rate was 8.6‰, and the natural growth rate was -3.3‰. Compared with 2022, the birth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points, the mortality rate increased by 0.6 percentage points, and the natural growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points.
This summer, a team led by leaders of the Quzhou Municipal Political Consultative Conference found that industrial development driving employment is the most important motivator for promoting population aggregation.
The report pointed out that since the reform and opening up, Guangzhou has rapidly risen to become one of China’s earliest open cities, leveraging its geographical advantages. Dongguan has established itself as a city based on its manufacturing industry and has quickly become a new international manufacturing city. Guangzhou has vigorously developed advanced manufacturing industries such as automobiles, electronics, and petrochemicals, as well as high-tech industries, modern service industries, and cultural and creative industries. It boasts a mature transportation network, advanced infrastructure, a strong manufacturing base, and a prosperous service market, with its GDP reaching 3.04 trillion yuan in 2023. Dongguan has built four strategic pillar industrial clusters, including new-generation electronic information, high-end equipment manufacturing, textiles, clothing, footwear, and hats, as well as food and beverages. It has also established five strategic emerging industrial clusters, including software and information services, new materials, new energy, biomedicine and high-end medical devices, and semiconductors and integrated circuits. It has formed a park development pattern led by the Songshan Lake National High-tech Industrial Development Zone, supported by seven provincial new areas (development zones) and seven strategic emerging industrial bases, with numerous municipal and town industrial zones as the foundation. Its GDP reached 1.14 trillion yuan in 2023. The rapid economic development has provided abundant employment opportunities and higher income levels, thereby attracting a large number of migrant populations.
In terms of rental-based affordable housing, new employees, migrant workers, and other groups are included in the scope of public rental housing security. Among Guangzhou’s 150,000 public rental housing units, 50,000 are used for newly employed workers without housing and stable employed migrant workers, accounting for about 30%. Guangzhou is vigorously developing affordable rental housing with municipal financial support, while Dongguan is promoting the “Guan Yu” rental housing brand, with state-owned enterprises uniformly subleasing and operating resettlement housing and other properties to provide convenient check-in services and high-quality public services for tenants. Additionally, rental subsidies are provided, with individuals who meet the conditions for public rental housing security or talent recognition receiving a monthly subsidy of 500 yuan for up to three years when renting municipal properties. In terms of for-sale affordable housing, based on the earlier pilot of shared ownership housing, the focus is on promoting the construction of for-sale affordable housing. In 2024, Guangzhou and Dongguan plan to build 10,000 and 3,000 units respectively, with prices controlled within 50% of similar commercial housing prices. Dongguan has also launched an online registration system for purchasing affordable housing intentions, with valid registrations directly entering the purchase waiting list, providing reference for project determination of unit configuration and development timing.
The two cities have also gradually relaxed their household registration policies. As megacities with populations exceeding ten million, Guangzhou and Dongguan have continuously relaxed their household registration restrictions to attract and retain migrant populations. In the past three years, the growth in registered population was 8 times and 259 times the growth in permanent population, respectively. Guangzhou has established a “1+1+3” household registration policy system, with the main focus on introducing talents, supplemented by a points-based system and policy-based household registration. The age limits for bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degree holders to settle have been relaxed by 5 years to 40, 45, and 50 years old, respectively, allowing recent graduates to directly apply for household registration at public security organs. The number of points-based household registration indicators has increased annually, from 3,000 in 2011 to 16,000 in 2024. Dongguan has clarified that the conditions for stable residence and employment-based household registration have changed from the original “double five” requirements of social security and residence duration to a “single” requirement, meaning that individuals who legally and stably reside and work in Dongguan, participate in social security, and hold a valid residence permit for at least one year can apply for household registration. It implements a policy of “first household registration, then