The U.S. elections have concluded, and the results will not only impact the United States but also significantly affect the global economy and geopolitical landscape. For the ongoing 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Baku, Azerbaijan, the question of whether the new U.S. administration will withdraw from the Paris Agreement and fully deregulate oil and gas production poses a significant challenge, potentially ushering in an “uncertain” era for global climate governance.
At the Baku climate conference, there is widespread concern among nations about whether the U.S. will take on the responsibilities of a major power in global climate governance. COP29 is considered a critical opportunity to promote actions against the climate crisis. As of May 2024, all 198 parties have enacted laws to address climate change, with 148 clearly stating carbon neutrality goals, 120 establishing legal status for these goals through legal or policy documents, and 86 presenting detailed carbon neutrality roadmaps.
Current Climate Actions
In response to the worsening climate situation, China is accelerating its comprehensive green transformation driven by carbon peak and carbon neutrality initiatives. The new European Commission is also committed to accelerating the EU’s green transformation, having announced 380 million euros in funding for new environmental and climate projects. The World Bank is providing $42.6 billion in climate financing for fiscal year 2024. The UK has closed its last coal-fired power plant, and Australia is advancing towards net-zero emissions and energy transformation.
On the other hand, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 13.5% of global carbon emissions in 2023, if it indeed “dismantles Biden’s climate legacy,” the greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. could increase by over 4 billion tons compared to 2005 levels by 2030. Some foreign agencies predict that if this occurs, the additional emissions from the U.S. over the next four years would offset more than twice the total energy savings achieved globally through the deployment of wind, solar, and other clean technologies in the past five years. By 2050, emissions could rise by an additional billion tons under current policies, and if the U.S. were to repeal various environmental regulations, global climate governance would become even more challenging.
COP29 Challenges and Goals
In the lead-up to COP29, the World Meteorological Organization released its latest report, highlighting that records for greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, and sea level rise have been broken once again. The report indicated that the global average surface CO2 concentration reached 420.0 ppm in 2023—151% of pre-industrial levels; methane reached 1934 ppb—265% of pre-industrial levels; and nitrous oxide reached 336.9 ppb—125% of pre-industrial levels. The 2024 Climate Service Status report declared 2023 as the hottest year on record, with unprecedented high temperatures expected to continue into 2024.
Faced with the severe reality that national climate plans are “far from meeting expected targets,” COP29 aims to launch urgent emission reductions and additional measures to protect populations from climate crises through two main pillars: “enhancing ambition” and “promoting action.” Key priorities include breaking down climate financing barriers, establishing a fair and ambitious new climate financing goal, refining Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, strengthening global financial institutions, and ensuring private sector commitments to climate action. The UN has stated that tens of trillions of dollars are needed to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making financing a focal point of COP29. Climate financing should not be viewed as charity; climate action is imperative. Although the international community has made substantial efforts to tackle climate change, discussions around funding for emissions reductions at past climate conferences have proven insufficient.
Insights from Economic Research
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to three economists who have provided unique insights into how institutions affect prosperity. Two of the scholars pointed out in their book, Power and Progress, that economic growth and prosperity largely depend not on technological advances but on healthy social institutions, rule of law, and public policies, with technology exacerbating inequalities. This offers important lessons for current climate governance: addressing the climate crisis is less about financing and technology and more about the inadequacies of existing climate governance systems to tackle the crisis effectively. Two months ago, the UN held a Future Summit and adopted the Future Pact, which covers new areas and long-standing issues, reaching several consensuses on sustainable development, climate, and development financing. However, we still need to accelerate our efforts.
China’s Role in Global Climate Governance
At COP29, I noticed that the “China Corner” drew considerable attention from participants and the media. This is due to China’s effective and resolute policies in advancing its carbon neutrality process and its commitment to fair and just climate governance. In light of increasing uncertainties in global climate governance, many countries hope that China can play a leading role in global climate action.
Currently, global climate governance must eliminate the phenomenon of individual countries acting independently and ensure solid progress. In terms of institutional development, the first step in global climate action should be to reconstruct the climate governance system, focusing on establishing a new institution with legal authority and strong practical capabilities based on achieving a global ecological consensus, which can guide member states in designing their climate governance systems. Economically, it is essential to break free from the unreasonable framework dominated by wealthy nations. One potential approach is to legally mandate additional taxes on giants in high-tech, petrochemicals, manufacturing, and trade, with funds being directly or indirectly transferred to support climate governance.
COP29 bears a heavy responsibility to uphold commitments and achieve innovations in climate governance systems.