With the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and industry, scholars around the world are increasingly discussing the potential impacts of this emerging frontier technology on international politics and economics. A recent viewpoint suggests that AI could end the catching-up advantages of latecomer countries, solidifying a “rich get richer” dynamic in international political and economic structures. This perspective argues that traditionally, latecomer countries often managed to achieve catch-up through learning from experiences, reducing trial-and-error costs, and introducing advanced technologies at lower costs. However, in the field of AI, this “latecomer effect” may no longer hold true.
Reasons for This Shift:
- High Costs of AI Adoption:
- The fixed costs associated with developing advanced AI systems are significant. The challenges of acquiring vast amounts of data and the high expense of powerful computing capabilities mean that only countries and enterprises with ample resources can establish a foothold in this field.
- Scale Effects Favor Early Movers:
- Early mover countries or companies can leverage their accumulated data and technology to create economies of scale, raising barriers to entry for new participants. Additionally, the network effects among users and enterprises allow AI systems to be continuously optimized, further entrenching the market advantages of early adopters.
- Need for Effective Policy Environments:
- Most AI technologies come with both risks and opportunities, and unchecked AI development could lead to significant societal disruptions. Thus, effective governance and a supportive policy environment are prerequisites for the large-scale application of AI. In this regard, leading countries, which typically have more technical elites and have pioneered experimentation, often hold advantages.
- Stronger Security Attributes and Strategic Interests:
- AI is increasingly viewed as a crucial component of national security. Countries like the U.S. have integrated AI technology into military defense, cybersecurity, and intelligence-gathering, viewing technological superiority as vital for national security. Some leading nations are inclined to impose stringent export controls on AI technologies and research resources to safeguard their national security, making it difficult for latecomer countries to acquire technology at lower costs.
These factors significantly influence the international competitive landscape in AI. On one hand, early mover countries, particularly the U.S., are displaying a growing protectionist stance toward AI technologies, becoming increasingly reluctant to see rapid diffusion that could benefit other nations. On the other hand, latecomer countries experience heightened anxiety about being marginalized in the AI era and the widening technological gap.
Factors Limiting the “Rich Get Richer” Effect in AI:
Despite the challenges, at least three factors may limit the “Matthew effect” of AI and promote a relatively balanced state for more countries in this field:
- Open Network Characteristics of AI Technology:
- Although some early mover countries attempt to protect their technological lead and core algorithms, the technology ecosystem in AI remains similar to other digital technologies, predominantly based on open-source initiatives. Leading companies generally prefer maintaining open research platforms to attract more innovative talent and resources, facilitating cross-border technology dissemination. Latecomer countries, therefore, have opportunities to quickly narrow the gap by leveraging this openness.
- Greater Policy Uncertainty for Early Movers:
- While early mover countries have the advantage of experience and pathways in AI governance, their governance models can fluctuate significantly due to political factors or changes in party leadership. For example, there are widespread expectations that a change in the U.S. government could lead to directional shifts in policies regarding algorithm governance and AI applications, creating a new competitive environment and policy risks for many innovative companies.
- Fundamental Conflicts Between AI and Social Development:
- AI is not just an empowering technology; it also poses disruptive threats to employment, livelihoods, and human cognition. Currently, governance technologies and regulatory methods for AI lag far behind the rapid development of the technology itself, suggesting that the gap between AI advancement and social needs may continue to widen, making conflicts increasingly difficult to reconcile. This sets a potential “ceiling” for AI development. In contrast, latecomer countries might face this “ceiling” or backlash effect later.
In conclusion, while the rapid advancement of AI poses challenges to the traditional catch-up strategies of latecomer countries, various factors might create opportunities for a more balanced global landscape in AI development.