Number of Primary and Middle School Students Expected to Drop to 60% in 9 Years, Significant Reduction in Targeted Training of Government-Funded Teacher Students in Taojiang, Hunan
Recently, the Education Bureau of Taojiang County, Yiyang City, Hunan Province revealed in its response to a proposal by a member of the Political Consultative Conference that, except for high school teachers, the number of primary and middle school teachers in the area will exceed the demand for some time to come. As a result, Taojiang County has suspended the targeted cultivation of publicly-funded normal university students starting from middle school in 2024, and significantly reduced the targeted cultivation plan for publicly-funded normal university students starting from high school. High school teachers in short supply over the next 10 years will mainly be transferred from compulsory education teachers.
Taojiang County, located in the northern part of central Hunan, jurisdictions over 15 townships with a total population of 870,000.
Regarding the proposal to “increase the number of teacher recruitment plans for graduates majoring in education with bachelor’s degrees or above, fully utilize existing reserve teacher resources, alleviate the employment pressure of university graduates in our county, and share the burden of society,” the Taojiang County Education Bureau explained that the county’s education bureau actively applies for staffing plans and teacher recruitment plans to the County Party Committee Establishment Office and the County Human Resources and Social Security Bureau each year based on teacher attrition, changes in student numbers, and actual educational and teaching needs. By the end of May 2024, there were 5,711 staff members in the Taojiang County education system, including 5,423 primary and secondary school teachers (2,346 primary school teachers, 1,958 middle school teachers, and 1,119 high school teachers). There were 84,051 public primary and secondary school students in the county (45,116 primary school students, 23,339 middle school students, and 15,374 high school students). According to the teacher-student ratio requirements, 5,347 teachers are needed (2,381 primary school teachers, 1,736 middle school teachers, and 1,230 high school teachers), resulting in an actual surplus of 76 teachers. Specifically, there is a shortage of 35 primary school teachers, a surplus of 222 middle school teachers, and a shortage of 111 high school teachers. In August 2024, 157 publicly-funded targeted normal university graduates joined the teaching profession. In accordance with the provincial Party committee’s requirement to “strictly control organizational staffing to ensure that financially supported personnel only decrease and do not increase” and the current situation of the teaching staff in Taojiang County, there are no teacher recruitment plans in Taojiang County for 2024.
In response to the proposal to “suspend the application plan for commissioning normal university students, reduce the loss of teacher reserve resources, decrease fiscal expenditures, alleviate financial pressure, and allocate limited financial funds to critical matters,” the Taojiang County Education Bureau disclosed that there are 1,048 students currently enrolled in the targeted publicly-funded normal education program in Taojiang County, including 588 primary school teachers, 285 middle school teachers, 113 high school teachers, and 62 kindergarten teachers and others. These individuals are contractually required to return to work in the county by 2029.
According to research, the number of primary and secondary school students in Taojiang County peaked in 2024 at 89,216 and is expected to decrease annually, reaching 53,023 by 2033, which is only 59.4% of the peak number of students. Based on the teacher-student ratio requirements, combined with the allocation of targeted publicly-funded normal university students and predictions of the number of teachers retiring each year, except for high school teachers, the number of primary and middle school teachers will exceed the demand for some time to come. Therefore, Taojiang County has suspended the targeted cultivation of publicly-funded normal university students starting from middle school in 2024 and significantly reduced the targeted cultivation plan for publicly-funded normal university students starting from high school, with only 4 special education and secondary vocational professional teachers being applied for. High school teachers in short supply over the next 10 years will mainly be transferred from compulsory education teachers. When teachers in compulsory education or high school stages cannot meet the demand, public recruitment will be conducted面向社会 or high schools.
The Paper noted that in October of this year, the “Taojiang County Primary and Secondary School and Kindergarten Layout Adjustment Planning Scheme (2024-2035)” was reviewed and approved by the fifth executive meeting of the county people’s government in 2024.
The aforementioned scheme states that by the first half of 2024, Taojiang County has 146 primary and secondary schools, including 96 public primary schools, 32 middle schools, 9 nine-year compulsory schools, 1 twelve-year school (private), 5 high schools, 2 vocational schools (including 1 private), and 1 special education school. There are 135 kindergartens, including 51 public kindergartens (including 3 preschool education points) and 84 private kindergartens. There are 15,055 children in the county, 69,893 students in compulsory education, and 17,700 high school students, with 5,764 staff members in the education system.
Based on predictions of the birth rate and the enrollment rate of newborns, the number of students in preschool and compulsory education will gradually decrease, while the number of high school students will increase over the next five years, peaking in 2028 with 6,300 more students than in 2024.
According to the scheme, starting from 2024, the number of primary and secondary schools in Taojiang County that will be merged or closed annually will be 16, 11, 9, 5, 7, 1, and 6 respectively. By 2030, after adjustment according to the plan, 83 primary and secondary schools will be retained. These schools can open 963 primary school classes, providing 43,335 spots, including 12,735 in Taohuajiang Town. They can also open 560 middle school classes, providing 28,000 spots, including 8,400 in Taohuajiang Town. This will meet the demand for 24,400 primary school spots and 20,000 middle school spots in 2030.
Based on changes in student numbers, the current number of teachers, teacher retirements, and the replenishment of publicly-funded targeted normal university students, without considering other factors, it is estimated that by the end of 2028, the total number of teachers in Taojiang County will be 5,732, with a surplus of 847 primary school teachers, 224 middle school teachers, and a shortage of 998 high school teachers. By the end of 2035, the total number of teachers in the county is expected to decrease to 4,273, and the issue of the number of teachers at various educational stages will become more prominent, with a surplus of 992 primary school teachers, 487 middle school teachers, and a shortage of 676 high school teachers.
To address this, the aforementioned scheme explicitly encourages excellent compulsory education teachers to move to preschool education. Starting from the fall of 2025, 20-30 compulsory education teachers will be transferred to public kindergartens each year to gradually solve the problem of the low proportion of in-service teachers in public kindergartens and promote the sustained and healthy development of preschool education. Additionally, high school teachers in relatively oversupplied subjects are encouraged to transition to scarce subjects through job transfer training. Through open selection, an average of 30-50 high-level compulsory education teachers will be selected annually to supplement high schools in shortage of teachers. The allocation and management of publicly-funded targeted normal university students will be strengthened, and graduates will be allocated to various high schools based on their majors. High school teachers in shortage of subjects will be cultivated and recruited in an orderly manner, and 35-50 outstanding talents will be introduced annually through public recruitment to supplement high schools.
The scheme also mentions that by 2030, 30% of school buses in the county are expected to exit the market, with the total number of school buses maintained at around 200.
