Are we at the peak of flu with more than 99% of the current flu being Type A influenza?
Recently, coughs can be heard everywhere. The legendary “flu magic drug” mabrasoribine has begun to rise in price, with some pharmacies pricing it at 300 yuan per box, and the drug is even in short supply in some areas.
All of this is due to the reappearance of flu this winter. According to the Weekly Influenza Report from the National Influenza Center in China, more than 99% of current flu cases are Type A influenza. Does this mean that the flu peak has already arrived?
The flu peak of this winter may not have arrived yet
Based on previous flu data, the flu epidemic this winter has been delayed compared to previous years. Typically, the high season for flu occurs from November to March of the following year. However, as of December 19, 2024, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that flu had entered a seasonal outbreak period.
Specifically, in early December 2023, the proportion of influenza-like cases in emergency departments in southern provinces reached 9.1%, and by the end of December, it had risen to 9.6%. As of the end of December 2024, the proportion was only 5.7%.
Zhao Wei, the director of the Biosecurity Research Center at the School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, explained in an interview with the media that although more than 99% of current flu cases are Type A influenza, this only means that flu is gradually entering its high season and does not necessarily indicate that the flu peak has already arrived. The CDC predicts that the flu epidemic will reach its peak in mid-January 2025. Especially with the Spring Festival travel rush opening up in mid-January, the risk of transmission of respiratory infections such as flu will further increase as people travel or visit family and friends.
Which regions have a higher incidence of flu?
In addition to northern and southern provinces, there are also differences in flu cases across different regions. Specifically, regions in East China, Northwest, and Southwest have a higher number of flu cases. Data from December 23 to 29, 2024 showed that there were 78 outbreaks of influenza-like cases in East China. Assuming that one outbreak of influenza-like cases is equivalent to 10 or more cases, this means that at least 780 cases of influenza-like cases occurred in East China in the week leading up to the end of December.
However, these are only the number of flu samples collected from sentinel hospitals and are not actual case counts. In 2024, the number of flu cases in Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Sichuan increased rapidly after entering mid-December.
Zhao Wei explained in an interview that the “big and small years” of flu outbreaks are mainly related to the mutation of the flu virus. “Last year’s large outbreak caused many people to become infected and develop immunity. When the main circulating strains of flu viruses are similar this year and last year, previous immunity still has a protective effect, leading to a reduction in the number of susceptible populations.”
Currently, although the flu peak has not yet arrived, prevention and treatment cannot be neglected. Compared to ordinary colds, flu can lead to serious complications such as encephalitis and pneumonia, especially for the elderly and infants who are at high risk.
The Chinese CDC also reminds the public that it is still in the high season for respiratory tract infections. To reduce disease transmission and minimize harm, it is recommended that members of the public take preventive measures such as maintaining good hygiene habits, wearing masks scientifically, and actively getting vaccinated.
If you are unlucky enough to be infected with flu, taking antiviral drugs within 48 hours of illness onset can effectively treat it. Li Tongzeng, a chief physician at Beijing You’an Hospital’s Infection Comprehensive Department, stated in an interview with the media that antiviral drugs for treating flu are most effective when taken within 48 hours of symptom onset. Using antiviral drugs as soon as possible can shorten the duration of the illness and reduce the risk of severe illness and transmission to others.
Since late December 2024, many people have been plagued by flu. User @Baqi Chengzi posted about her full recovery process from Type A flu over New Year’s. She began to feel unwell while holding her favorite iced coffee and didn’t want to drink it anymore. She started to feel chilled and had pain in her legs and back in the early afternoon. Upon returning home, she took a test and found out she had a fever. However, fortunately, she took antiviral medication within 48 hours of becoming ill. Three days after taking medication, she was no longer experiencing fever or dizziness.
It is worth noting that recently popular antiviral drugs such as mabrasoribine and
