Yunnan Statistics Bureau: The labor dependency burden in Yunnan is relatively light, and the demographic dividend is better than the national average.
On November 30, 2024, in Kunming, Yunnan Province, citizens were enjoying their time at the floral corridor of Nanping Pedestrian Street.
Recently, the Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics released a series of reports on the achievements of economic and social development in Yunnan over the 75 years since the founding of New China, indicating that Yunnan’s population age structure is better than the national average, and the demographic dividend still exists.
The report noted that from 2001 to 2011, Yunnan’s population grew steadily. The birth rate gradually declined while the death rate remained stable, with the number of births decreasing from over 800,000 annually to below 600,000 (with a slight increase in 2010 to 600,800). The birth rate fell from 18.5‰ to 12.7‰, and the natural population increase dropped from 484,000 to 292,800. The total population rose from 42.408 million to 46.2 million.
From 2012 to the present, Yunnan’s population development has gradually shifted from total growth to an improvement in population quality. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party, the total population of the province has increased from 46.2 million to 46.73 million in 2023, an increase of 530,000, with an average annual increase of 44,000 and an average growth rate of less than 0.1%. At the same time, Yunnan’s population has shown significant improvements in education levels, health status, and mobility. Data from the seventh national population census indicated that compared to the sixth census in 2010, the number of people with college education or above per 100,000 in Yunnan increased from 5,800 to 11,600; the average life expectancy rose from 69.5 years to 74.02 years. The population transition has moved from total growth to high-quality development.
The report stated that by the end of 2023, Yunnan’s permanent resident population was 46.73 million, ranking 12th in the country and accounting for 3.3% of the national total. Among them, the labor force aged 16-59 was 29.64 million, making up 63.4% of the total population, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the national average (61.3%), indicating a relatively high proportion of the working-age population and a moderate to high level of labor supply nationwide.
The population aged 60 and above in Yunnan was 7.92 million, accounting for 16.9%, which is 4.2 percentage points lower than the national average. Among them, those aged 65 and above numbered 5.58 million, making up 11.9%, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than the national average, indicating a better situation regarding population aging compared to the country as a whole. Overall, Yunnan’s population age structure is superior to the national average, with relatively abundant labor resources. The total dependency ratio (43.4%) is lower than the national average (46.5%), resulting in a lighter burden of labor dependency and a demographic dividend that is better than the national average.
Recently, several provinces across the country have released reports on the achievements of economic and social development in their regions over the 75 years since the founding of New China, reviewing and forecasting population development.
The Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in its report on the achievements of economic and social development in Shaanxi over the 75 years since the founding of New China, noted that the province’s permanent resident population has grown from 13.17 million in 1949 to 39.52 million in 2023, with an average annual increase of 356,100 and an average growth rate of about 1.5%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the national average. The population density increased from 64 people per square kilometer in 1949 to 192 people per square kilometer in 2023, an increase of 128 people per square kilometer. From 1949 to 1977, the population grew rapidly, with an average annual increase of 512,100 and an average growth rate of 2.66%. From 1978 to 2011, the implementation of family planning policies led to a gradual slowdown in population growth, with the average annual increase dropping to 298,800 and an average growth rate of 0.92%. Since the 18th National Congress, in response to the long-term low fertility level below the replacement level of 2.1, the central leadership, with Xi Jinping at its core, made decisive decisions to adjust fertility policies, transitioning from the “one-child policy” in 2013 to the “two-child policy” in 2016, and then to the “three-child policy” in 2021, gradually relaxing birth control and maintaining stable population growth.
The report pointed out that since the founding of New China, with the gradual development of the economy, society, and healthcare, the living standards of the people have continuously improved, and the population death rate has gradually declined. By 2023, the birth rate in Shaanxi had dropped to 6.83‰, the death rate to 8.14‰, and the natural growth rate to -1.31‰, marking a historic shift in population reproduction from high birth rates, high death rates, and low natural growth rates to low birth rates, low death rates, and low natural growth rates. This transition in population reproduction types has led to an aging population structure.
In 2010, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above in Shaanxi was 12.85%, and those aged 65 and above accounted for 8.53%, both rising compared to 2000. By 2020, these figures had increased to 19.20% and 13.32%, respectively. In 2023, the proportions were 21.59% and 15.23%, with the population aged 0-14 making up 16.40%, indicating a deepening degree of population aging. The acceleration of population aging will increase pressure on social security and public services, weaken the demographic dividend, and continuously impact social vitality, innovation momentum, and potential economic growth rates, posing significant risks and challenges for population development in the new era.
The report concluded that over the 75 years since the founding of New China, the population situation in the province has undergone profound changes, with an expansion in the scale of population mobility, an increase in education levels, and a historic high in longevity. However, it also faces risks and challenges such as population aging, marking a critical turning point in population development.
Additionally, the Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics released a report on November 29 analyzing the achievements of economic and social development in Qinghai over the 75 years since the founding of New China. The report noted that the total population of Qinghai increased from 1.4833 million at the end of 1949 to 5.94 million at the end of 2023, an increase of 4.4567 million, or 3.0 times. The population development in the province can be roughly divided into three stages: a period of rapid growth (1949-1977), a period of regulated growth (1978-1999), and a period of stable development (2000-2023).
During the stable development period, influenced by both economic and social development and family planning policies, Qinghai’s population grew steadily at a low rate. As the internal dynamics and external conditions of population development underwent transformative changes, the main contradiction in population development shifted from quantity pressure to structural challenges. The central government made significant decisions regarding the “two-child policy” and “three-child policy,” which have yielded positive results. After the concentrated release of policy effects, the total number of births in the province increased from 516,500 in 2000 to 594,000 in 2023, an increase of 77,500, with an average annual growth rate of 0.61%.
The report also mentioned that the marital and family status of the population is an important component of the social structure. After the founding of New China, the feudal marriage system was abolished, and a monogamous marriage system was established. In 1949, the divorce rate among the population aged 15 and above in Qinghai was 1.88%. According to the results of the third national census in 1982, this figure dropped to 1.31%, and in the fourth census in 1990, it fell to 1.16%. The fifth census in 2000 showed a divorce rate of 1.77%, while the sixth census in 2010 reported a rate of 2.57%. The seventh census in 2020 indicated a divorce rate of 3.59% among the population aged 15 and above. Over the 75 years since the founding of New China, although the divorce rate in Qinghai has risen since 2000, it has remained below 4%, indicating a generally stable marital status among the population.
